Decimal odds are the standard format in most of Europe and the one BetArchives uses. Once you can read them as probabilities, every price in the archive becomes a statement about how likely the market thought an outcome was.
What decimal odds mean
A decimal price is the total amount returned for every 1 unit staked, including the stake. A price of 2.50 returns 2.50 for each 1 staked: 1.50 profit plus the original 1.
Lower odds mean a more likely outcome; higher odds mean a less likely one. A price of 1.20 is a strong favourite, 6.00 a clear outsider.
From odds to implied probability
Divide 1 by the price to get the probability the price implies:
- 1.50 → 1 ÷ 1.50 = 67%
- 2.00 → 1 ÷ 2.00 = 50%
- 2.50 → 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%
- 4.00 → 1 ÷ 4.00 = 25%
- 10.00 → 1 ÷ 10.00 = 10%
Implied probability is the market's estimate, not a certainty. In the archive the closing favourite won 52% of matches: favourites lose far more often than many people expect.
The bookmaker's margin
Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market and the total is always above 100%. The excess is the bookmaker's margin, also called the overround.
Example: a match priced 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60 gives 47.6% + 29.4% + 27.8% = 104.8%, a margin of 4.8%. To get fair probabilities, divide each one by the total: 47.6 ÷ 104.8 = 45.4% for the home win, and so on.
The odds analysis on every BetArchives match page does this for you and shows the margin-free probability of each result.
Converting other formats
- Fractional (UK): add 1. 5/2 = 2.5 + 1 = 3.50; 1/2 = 0.5 + 1 = 1.50.
- American, positive: divide by 100 and add 1. +150 = 2.50.
- American, negative: divide 100 by the number and add 1. −200 = 1.50.
Putting it into practice
Open any finished match and compare the closing prices with the result. Over many matches you will see that 2.00 shots win about half the time and 4.00 shots about a quarter of the time, once the margin is accounted for. That is what makes closing odds such a useful reference. See also opening vs closing odds.
Figures in bold come from the last 245 finished matches in the archive and update automatically.
Frequently asked questions
What do odds of 1.00 mean?+
A price of 1.00 would return only the stake, implying a 100% certainty. Real prices are always above 1.00.
Why don't the probabilities of a match add up to 100%?+
Because of the bookmaker's margin. The total is usually between 102% and 108% for the main football markets.
Are decimal odds the same as European odds?+
Yes. Decimal, European and continental odds are different names for the same format.