Every match on BetArchives shows two prices for each selection: the price when the market opened and the price when it closed at kick-off. The difference between them is one of the most informative things in football odds.
Opening odds
The opening odds are the first prices a bookmaker publishes, often several days before the match. They are based on the bookmaker's own models: team strength, form, home advantage and the schedule.
At this point little money has been placed and team news is unknown, so opening prices carry the most uncertainty.
Closing odds
The closing odds are the last prices before kick-off. By then the line-ups are known, injuries and rotation are confirmed and the market has absorbed the money of thousands of bettors.
For that reason the closing price is widely regarded as the most accurate estimate of each outcome's probability. Analysts use it as a benchmark: if a price you saw earlier was higher than the closing price, the market later moved in that direction.
Why odds change between opening and kick-off
- Team news: a key player injured or rested can move a price sharply.
- Line-ups: confirmed starting elevens, usually an hour before kick-off, often cause the last big move.
- Weight of money: when most stakes land on one side, bookmakers shorten it to balance their book.
- New information: weather, travel problems, motivation late in a season.
- Corrections: an opening price that was simply out of line with the rest of the market.
A worked example
Suppose a home win opens at 2.20 and closes at 1.95. The implied probability rises from 1 ÷ 2.20 = 45% to 1 ÷ 1.95 = 51%. The market became more confident in the home side, perhaps because the away team announced a weakened line-up.
If instead the price drifted from 2.20 to 2.50, the market's confidence fell from 45% to 40%.
How to read them on BetArchives
On every match page the large number is the closing price and the small line beneath it is the opening price. A ▼ arrow means the price shortened (fell) and a ▲ arrow means it drifted (rose). Hover a price in the match lists to see where it opened.
In the archive so far, the price of the eventual result shortened in 40% of matches. That shows the market often moves towards what happens, but far from always. More on this in dropping odds explained.
Figures in bold come from the last 298 finished matches in the archive and update automatically.
Frequently asked questions
Which is more accurate, the opening or the closing price?+
The closing price, in general. It reflects confirmed team news and the full weight of the market, while the opening price is set with much less information.
Why do some selections show no opening price?+
Some lines are only offered close to kick-off, so only a closing price exists. These are labelled on the match page.
Do opening and closing odds include the bookmaker's margin?+
Yes, both do. To compare them fairly, convert them to probabilities and remove the margin, as explained in how to read decimal odds.